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Source Research
28 wrzesień 2020
Absa Group South Africa morning sheet - 28 September 2020
Nedbank Weekly Monitor 28 September 2020
Rand Merchant Bank Global Markets Daily
Description
Economics and markets This week will fill your bowls as statistical releases are plentiful. October brings with it heightened fiscal angst as the market readies itself for the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement. For currency markets, global determinants will continue to set the pace ahead of the all-important US elections. Tuesday’s first presidential debate will prove as entertaining as it will instructive, especially for Asian markets. USD/ZAR opens at 17.02; EUR/ZAR at 19.95; GBP/ZAR at 21.82 and CNY/ZAR at 2.51.   We’re into the final stretch of what can only be described as a most bizarre year. For South Africans, Heritage Day (celebrated on 24 September) provided a welcome reminder of our cultural and societal diversity. More importantly, it provided few with a welcome reprieve from our hum drum work-from-home existence. Despite my musings, I consider it a privilege that many do not share – a common reality that should be exposed in this week’s domestic unemployment figures for 2Q20. A number potentially at its highest level on record, in line with the woeful 51% contraction in economic activity.  For those of you starved of data, this week will fill your bowls as statistical releases are plentiful. Local consumer and producer prices are usually quite important to the fixed-income market, informing real rate expectations. However, the monthly data is forecast to remain flat as economic activity is still weak, potentially diminishing its importance. October brings with it heightened fiscal angst as the market readies itself for the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement. The NT’s macroeconomic assumptions, potential expenditure overruns amid the impasse in wage negotiations, additional SOE outlays and the resultant financing implications will have a bearing on the local curve.  For currency markets, global determinants will continue to set the pace ahead of the all-important US elections, where the senate race might prove more crucial than the presidential outcome. Indicators of market volatility remain elevated into 2021, expressing uncertainty over the actual outcomes. The Guardian’s latest poll puts Biden ahead of Trump but that doesn’t assure victory. Recall that Clinton led Trump for most of 2016. Tuesday’s first presidential debate will prove as entertaining as it will instructive, especially for Asian markets, where policy changes have been most pronounced over the last four years. The President’s ban of TikTok has been blocked, at least temporarily, following a federal judgement putting the November sale deadline on ice. An unlikely trigger for Asian outperformance but still encouraging for an already sprightly market which traded in the green this morning after further signs of continued recovery in China.  That would otherwise be positive for risk assets and ostensibly the rand, but Tuesday’s Biden-Trump showdown could potentially change the game if there is no clear winner, especially as virus case numbers in Europe are on the rise. PMI data this week will provide important context for whether the European economic recovery has the momentum to cross this hurdle. The ECB and Fed’s take on matters will prove interesting following recent policy revisions, with several officials due to speak this week. The blend of narrative, data and priced volatility doesn’t provide much immediate direction for the rand or EM assets. Resistance on USD/ZAR is now set at 17.20 as EUR/USD flounders at 1.16. Rather than price expectations, markets will await outcomes this week, implying unpredictable and potentially impulsive moves.  Par for the course, one could say.  Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana     Local rates The local currency is trading back to familiar territory above the 17.00 handle, down from Friday’s 17.26 high. The implied volatility of most EM currencies has followed suit, as they continue to trade at elevated levels, with the three-month at-the-money being marked around 19.45 ahead of London’s opening session. SAGBs endured a difficult week with foreign investors remaining better net sellers of the local bonds, however this theme was not only synonymous to the SAGBs as the rest of EM bonds also came under seller pressure, particularly on Friday. The local bonds are still offering good pick-up, with a mild but persistent steepening pressure as the R2044/R186 spread is middling above 430bp this morning and ahead of tomorrow’s nominal auction where the National Treasury will come to market with R186s, R2030s and R2037s. On Friday, we had our weekly inflation auction, where I2029s, I2038s and I2046s were on offer, with the allocation relatively evenly spread. The I2029s (690m) cleared auction at 4.15 at a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.32, the I2038s (690m) cleared auction at 4.80 at a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.54, while the I2046s (620m) cleared auction at 4.84 with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.84. The mark-to-market levels were 4.15, 4.80 and 4.85, respectively. Good luck for the rest of the week.  Tebogo Mekgwe
Commercial Bank of Africa CBAU MARKET NEWS
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Sept 28, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Sept 28, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
25 wrzesień 2020
FSDH Group FSDH Group Daily Market Wrap
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (25 September 2020)
Raiffeisen Bank Aval Focus Ukraine (August, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
Absa Group South Africa morning sheet - 25 September 2020
Rand Merchant Bank Global Markets Daily
Description
Economics and markets In the UK, concerns about rising covid-19 infection rates remain, with members of Boris Johnson’s party threatening to block new restrictions on the economy. As the British PM’s 15 October deadline for a trade deal with the EU looms ever closer, many are losing hope that a deal will be struck. Trump’s unwillingness to commit to an orderly transfer of power in the event he loses the US election has brought about some of the greatest dissent from within his party. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed higher yesterday, while European markets fell; Asia’s Friday trading session is currently mixed. The rand, however, has recovered from the week’s weakest levels and is now trading below 17.00 to the dollar. USD/ZAR opens at 16.93; EUR/ZAR at 19.77; GBP/ZAR at 21.58 and CNY/ZAR at 2.48.   Good morning to the South African stalwarts who have returned to their desks this fine Friday – some may be out of necessity, some out of choice. A good way to think of today is long weekend, interrupted! Sometimes it can feel like a week’s worth of change happens in one day, and sometimes like nothing has changed at all. In today’s case, it feels more like the latter. In the UK, concerns about rising covid-19 infection rates remain, with members of Boris Johnson’s party threatening to block new restrictions on the economy. Furthermore, as the British PM’s 15 October deadline for a trade deal with the EU looms ever closer, many are losing hope that a deal will be struck. Rishi Sunak’s new support for the UK economy reflects some realities that there will be a spike in unemployment soon – rather than extending the furlough programme, the government will top up salaries for those who remain employed. This conservative and yet realistic approach possibly also speaks to the fact that he knows the next challenge is probably around the corner. He is not alone, with companies in the UK and EU with dependencies on each other stockpiling necessary parts as a no-deal Brexit becomes the base case for many, which has also resulted in the shifting of some positions across the channel. A no-deal Brexit, especially one in which there is a unilateral rewriting of the Brexit agreement, will bring about a number of challenges for both the EU and UK.  In the US, Trump’s unwillingness to commit to an orderly transfer of power in the event he loses the US election has brought about some of the greatest dissent from within his party, as many prominent Republicans have commented publicly that they will ensure that the democratic principle of an orderly transition is honoured.  US markets don’t seem to be too worried about the news though, as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed higher yesterday, although the new waves of infection and growing concerns about a no-deal Brexit could be the driving force behind European markets falling. In Asia, it is a mixed morning, with the Nikkei up 0.5% and the ASX up 1.5%, but the Chinese and Hong Kong bourses are trading in the red. SA’s market will probably be rather subdued today given the public holiday yesterday and a serious dearth of data this week. The rand, however, has recovered from the week’s weakest levels and is now trading below 17.00 to the dollar.  On that note, may you have a productive day if in the office, and a good return to the weekend in a few hours’ time.  Siobhan Redford     Local rates Foreigners were better sellers of close to R1bn on Wednesday again, favouring the belly area of the curve, with R2030s, R213s and R2032s wearing the most pain. There continues to be structural demand for the back end of the curve from local real money accounts as yields above 11.50 look attractive.  With the majority of local investors taking an extended long weekend, we should be in for a quiet day flow-wise. The auction non-comps expire at 11 today and should put a halt on any rally should we have one. Currently the R2035s are the only bonds that are at the money, which should put pressure on any rally till 11. Overnight risk sentiment has improved, and the currency has traded below 17 again. SAGBs should take their cue from the currency today as we lack any local data and only have Durable Goods orders released in the US.  The National Treasury will auction I2029s, I2038s and I2046s today. The combination of last week’s under-allocated auction, bearish currency and nominal markets, the shortened week, negative momentum and the mildly higher duration stocks on offer leads us to expect a weaker-than-average auction this week. That said, at these heightened levels, we have seen some measure of support step in, albeit not sufficient enough to switch to a more bullish note. This week’s auction should see less support, especially due to the public holiday yesterday. As such, we expect the auction to be fully allocated. However, we will probably see all three bonds on offer clear higher than current mark-to-market levels.  Michelle Wohlberg
24 wrzesień 2020
FSDH Group FSDH Group Daily Market Wrap
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
23 wrzesień 2020
FSDH Group FSDH Group Daily Market Wrap
Commercial Bank of Africa CBAU MARKET NEWS
Rand Merchant Bank Global Markets Daily
Description
Economics and markets Britons are to prepare for six months of increased restrictions, which could be stepped up if the restrictions announced yesterday do not help to slow the rate of new covid-19 infections. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, is now expected to propose further wage support and stimulus measures to help the UK’s economy weather this crisis as best it can. US funding concerns seem to be greater than just the need for a new stimulus package as the House has passed a stopgap funding bill to ensure that government services remain available through to December. The ASX has followed the US bourse’s growth, with a 2.4% increase in today’s trading session, miles ahead of other Asian markets which are trading flat. The dollar continues its strengthening trend, which has pushed the rand slightly weaker relative to yesterday, but rand volatility remains high. USD/ZAR opens at 16.80; EUR/ZAR at 19.67; GBP/ZAR at 21.38 and CNY/ZAR at 2.48.   Britons were all but told to expect that Christmas this year will not be normal – actually, they are to prepare for six months of increased restrictions. These could be stepped up if the restrictions announced yesterday do not help to slow the rate of new covid-19 infections in the UK. This has turned attention to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who is now expected to propose further wage support and stimulus measures to help the UK’s economy weather this crisis as best it can. Not far from his, or for that matter many people’s minds, will be the ever-looming deadline for some kind of agreement on trade relations between the UK and EU. In the absence of an agreement, the UK economy will probably face a rather challenging 2021, even if covid-19 manages to become an afterthought.  In the US, the new infection rate remains relatively controlled. However, funding concerns seem to be greater than just the need for a new stimulus package as the House has passed a stopgap funding bill to ensure that government services remain available through to December, with the Senate to vote on this bill before the end of the month. The bill has seen some assistance extended to farmers and low-income families, but should Jerome Powell’s assessment about the economic outlook be right, there will need to be broader economic aid. A process that has been at full steam has been President Donald Trump’s nomination for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement in the Supreme Court, with a confirmation hearing and vote expected by mid-October.  The US market correction has turned, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq growing by 0.5%, 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively yesterday. The ASX has followed, with a 2.4% increase in today’s trading session, miles ahead of other Asian markets which are trading flat. The dollar continues its strengthening trend, which has pushed the rand slightly weaker relative to yesterday, but rand volatility remains high. SA is not alone though, with many EMs experiencing similar movements.  Domestically, it is the last busy business day for the week as many people will probably take Friday off and make it a long weekend starting with tomorrow’s observance of Heritage Day. That said, data releases remain thin with the July reading of the composite leading indicator out yesterday showing an unexpected jump (as well as a significant upward revision to June’s outcome). This does not indicate that SA is out of the woods, but rather confirms that economic activity is improving from the deep contraction in the second quarter, in line with the easing of lockdown restrictions.  On that note, may your preparations and celebrations of South Africa’s rich heritage go smoothly (with appropriate physical distancing) and for those of you looking forward to a long weekend, enjoy the break.   Siobhan Redford     Local rates After a brutal day on Monday, SAGBs felt no love from foreign investors, with foreigners seen selling bonds first thing on Tuesday morning. Bonds weakened another 15bp on the open as investors feared that the high delta auction would not garner enough interest. This is one of the highest delta auctions we’ve had in two years and it was no surprise that the market was a little weary ahead of the auction. The auction was well supported with yields clearing at market mids, but the bid to cover ratios were less than inspiring. Bonds managed to gain some traction post the auction as local investors came in and took advantage of the recent weakness in yields, signalling that perhaps the market has done a little too much too soon.  Bond yields have opened up slightly stronger than yesterday’s close, but with the lack of any significant data to drive markets, focus will turn to the auction announcement at 11:00am to drive price action. The non-comp options will shift to Friday as tomorrow is a public holiday, so auction participants have 72 hours of optionality which should put a dampener on any significant bond rally.  Michelle Wohlberg
ICU Bond Market Insight -- A less generous MoF
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (September 16 - 22, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
22 wrzesień 2020
FSDH Group FSDH Group Daily Market Wrap
Commercial Bank of Africa CBAU MARKET NEWS
ICU Weekly Insight -- GDP falls 11.4% YoY in 2Q20
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